如何在一個飛速變化的世界里精明地失敗英語演講稿

　　Over the past six months, I've spent my time traveling. I think I've done 60,000 miles, but without leaving my desk. And the reason I can do that is because I'm actually two people. I look like one person but I'm two people. I'm Eddie who is here, and at the same time, my alter ego is a big green boxy avatar nicknamed Cyber Frank.在過去的六個月的時間里，我一直把時間花在旅行上。我想我大概旅行了6萬英里，但我并沒有離開自己的桌子。我能這么做是因為我其實是兩個人。我看起來是一個人但我其實是兩個人。此時此地我是艾迪， 與此同時，我的另一面是一個四四方方的虛擬角色，昵稱是賽博弗蘭克。

　　So that's what I spend my time doing. I'd like to start, if it's possible, with a test, because I do business stuff, so it's important that we focus on outcomes. And then I struggled, because I was thinking to myself, "What should I talk? What should I do? It's a TED audience. It's got to be stretching. How am I going to make — ?" So I just hope I've got the level of difficulty right. So let's just walk our way through this. Please could you work this through with me? You can shout out the answer if you like. The question is, which of these horizontal lines is longer? The answer is? Audience: The same. Eddie Obeng: The same. No, they're not the same. (Laughter) They're not the same. The top one is 10 percent longer than the bottom one. So why did you tell me they were the same? Do you remember when we were kids at school, about that big, they played the same trick on us? It was to teach us parallax. Do you remember? And you got, you said, "It's the same!" And you got it wrong. You remember? And you learned the answer, and you've carried this answer in your head for 10, 20, 30, 40 years: The answer is the same. The answer is the same. So when you're asked what the lengths are, you say they're the same, but they're not the same, because I've changed it.所以那就是我花時間正在做的事。我希望現在，如果可能的話，做一個小測試，因為我的工作就是與商業有關，所以我們關注結果這對我們非常重要。然而隨后我卻很糾結，因為我自己考慮了下，“我該怎么說呢？我該怎么做呢？這可是一場TED的演講啊。壓力好大。我要怎么把它做好呢？”所以我只希望它的難度比較適中。所以讓我們現在開始吧，拜托大家和我一起考慮這個問題好嗎？如果你愿意的話，你也可以把答案喊出來。問題是這樣的，哪條水平線更長一些呢？答案是？聽眾：一樣長。艾迪奧本格：一樣長。錯，他們不是一樣長。他們不一樣。上面的那條比下面的長10%。所以為什么你們告訴我他們一樣長呢？你們還記得小時候在學校，當你才這么高的時候，老師也曾跟我們玩過一樣的小把戲嗎？目的是為了教我們什么是視差效應。你們還記得嗎？你們曾碰到過，你們回答，“一樣長！”你們答錯了。想起來了？你們那時候知道了答案，記在腦海中，10年，20年，30年，40年。答案就是一樣長。答案就是一樣長。所以當你們被問起哪個比較長，你們會說一樣長，但是它們其實不一樣長，因為我做了手腳。

　　And this is what I'm trying to explain has happened to us in the 21st century. Somebody or something has changed the rules about how our world works. When I'm joking, I try and explain it happened at midnight, you see, while we were asleep, but it was midnight 15 years ago. Okay? You didn't notice it? But basically, what they do is, they switched all the rules round, so that the way to successfully run a business, an organization, or even a country, has been d, flipped, and it's a completely new — you think I'm joking, don't you — there's a completely new set of rules in operation. (Laughter) Did you notice that? I mean, you missed this one. You probably — No, you didn't. Okay. (Laughter)這就是我現在想要為大家解釋的，在眼下21世紀正在我們身上發生的事情。不知不覺間，這個世界運行的規律已經改變。我有時會開玩笑地跟大家解釋說，這些改變就是在我們酣睡的時候發生的。你們明白了，15年前的午夜，我們沉醉在夢鄉之時，改變來了。你們當時沒注意到？但是實際上，他們轉變了我們周圍的所有規則，不管是成功運作一筆生意，或是成功管理一個組織，甚至是成功領導一個國家，舊的規則都被刪除并且顛覆了，于是我們有了全新的規則——你一定覺得我在忽悠人，是嗎——一套全新的運作規則。你當時沒注意到？我的意思是你錯過了它。你很可能——不，你就是沒注意到好嗎。（笑聲）

　　My simple idea is that what's happened is, the real 21st century around us isn't so obvious to us, so instead we spend our time responding rationally to a world which we understand and recognize, but which no longer exists. You don't believe me, do you? Okay. (Applause)簡單的說我認為事情是這樣的，發生在我們身邊的21世紀的真相并不是那么的容易看出來， 所以我們花時間去認真回應一個我們曾經理解和熟悉的世界，但是卻已經不存在。你其實不相信我，不是嗎？好吧。（喝彩）

　　So let me take you on a little journey of many of the things I don't understand. If you search Amazon for the word "creativity," you'll discover something like 90,000 books. If you go on Google and you look for "innovation + creativity," you get 30 million hits. If you add the word "consultants," it doubles to 60 million. (Laughter) Are you with me? And yet, statistically, what you discover is that about one in 100,000 ideas is found making money or delivering benefits two years after its inception. It makes no sense. Companies make their expensive executives spend ages carefully preparing forecasts and budgets which are obsolete or need changing before they can be published.那么讓我帶你開始一個短小精悍的旅程滿是我不理解的事。如果你在亞馬遜上搜索“創新”，你將發現至少9萬本與此有關的書籍。如果你谷歌搜索“改革+創新”，你會搜到3千萬個鏈接。如果你再多加一個關鍵詞“顧問”，鏈接數直接加倍變成6千萬。你還在聽我說嗎？于是乎，從數據上，你看出些什么端倪了嗎，恐怕只有十萬分之一的點子能幫你掙到錢，或者在下個兩年內為你帶來收益。 所以它們沒有任何意義。無數身價不菲的企業高管經年累月小心翼翼的準備那些市場預測與預算，但是還不等完成就已過時和有待改進了。

　　How is that possible? If you look at the visions we have, the visions of how we're going to change the world, the key thing is implementation. We have the vision. We've got to make it happen. We've spent decades professionalizing implementation. People are supposed to be good at making stuff happen. However, if I use as an example a family of five going on holiday, if you can imagine this, all the way from London all the way across to Hong Kong, what I want you to think about is their budget is only 3,000 pounds of expenses. What actually happens is, if I compare this to the average real project, average real successful project, the family actually end up in Makassar, South Sulawesi, at a cost of 4,000 pounds, whilst leaving two of the children behind. (Laughter) What I'm trying to explain to you is, there are things which don't make sense to us.怎么會這樣呢？想想我們自己的價值觀吧，想想我們想如何改變這個世界，最核心的觀點就是實施。我們有個想法， 我們就要努力實現它。我們花了數十年去研究如何把理念變為現實。理論上說我們應該很擅長創造才對。然而，如果我以一個五口之家準備去旅行為例，想象一下，從倫敦出發目標是香港，他們的預算只有3000英鎊。現實就是，如果比較一下成功案例的平均花銷，真正能實現的成功案例，這家人最多能到望加錫，南蘇拉威西，花掉4千英磅，同時還得把倆孩子丟家里。通過這個案例我希望告訴大家的是，很多事情對我們沒有任何意義。

　　It gets even worse than that. Let me just walk you through this one. This is a quote, and I'll just pick words out of it. It says -- I'll put on the voice -- "In summary, your Majesty, the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis was due to the lack of creativity and the number of bright minds," or something like that. This was a group of eminent economists apologizing to the Queen of England when she asked the question, "Why did no one tell us that the crisis was coming?" (Laughter) I'll never get my knighthood. I'll never get my knighthood. (Laughter) That's not the important point. The thing you have to remember is, these are eminent economists, some of the smartest people on the planet. Do you see the challenge? (Laughter)有時會更糟糕。所以這個案例就到此為止吧。這里有斷摘要，我只挑些重點。它說——我會幫它配音——“總體來說，女王陛下，之所以沒能預測到本次危機的時間、范圍和嚴重性，是因為缺乏創造力和一些聰明的頭腦，”或者類似的事情。這封給英女王的道歉信，出自一個由杰出經濟學家們組成的團體，女王問了如下的問題，“為什么沒人提醒我們危機要來了？”（笑聲）我永遠也不會得到爵位了。我沒戲了。（笑聲）不過這事無關緊要。我想讓大家記住的是，這些杰出的經濟學家們，他們可是我們這個星球上最聰明的人啊。你是不是覺得有點不妙了？（笑聲）

　　It's scary. My friend and mentor, Tim Brown of IDEO, he explains that design must get big, and he's right. He wisely explains this to us. He says design thinking must tackle big systems for the challenges we have. He's absolutely right. And then I ask myself, "Why was it ever small?" Isn't it weird? You know, if collaboration is so cool, is cross-functional working is so amazing, why did we build these huge hierarchies? What's going on? You see, I think what's happened, perhaps, is that we've not noticed that change I described earlier.太可怕了。我的朋友兼導師，IDEO的蒂姆布朗，他覺得好的設計要從大處著手，他是對的。他非常巧妙的把這個理念解釋給了我。他認為設計思維必須從宏觀世界的角度去考慮我們的設計目標。他很顯然是對的。于是我問自己，“為什么以前的設計總是從小處著手呢？”這不奇怪嗎？你們知道，既然協作這么迷人，既然跨職能合作這么好用，為什么我們創造出了眼下這個巨大的層級制度呢？我們出了什么問題？你們看，我覺得問題就處在，也許，就是我們沒有察覺到的早先我提到的改變。

　　What we do know is that the world has accelerated. Cyberspace moves everything at the speed of light. Technology accelerates things exponentially. So if this is now, and that's the past, and we start thinking about change, you know, all governments are seeking change, you're here seeking change, everybody's after change, it's really cool. (Laughter) So what happens is, we get this wonderful whooshing acceleration and change. The speed is accelerating. That's not the only thing. At the same time, as we've done that, we've done something really weird. We've doubled the population in 40 years, put half of them in cities, then connected them all up so they can interact. The density of the interaction of human beings is amazing. There are charts which show all these movements of information. That density of information is amazing. And then we've done a third thing. you know, for those of you who have as an office a little desk underneath the stairs, and you say, well this is my little desk under the stairs, no! You are sitting at the headquarters of a global corporation if you're connected to the Internet. What's happened is, we've changed the scale. Size and scale are no longer the same. And then add to that, every time you tweet, over a third of your followers follow from a country which is not your own.有一點可以肯定，世界正在加速中。互聯網把所有的事情都變成了光速。科技讓我們的世界以指數級的加速度加速前進。所以打這一刻起，我們剛談到的都已是歷史了，現在我們開始考慮改變了，你們都知道，所有的政府都在求新求變，你們也是為此而來，所有人都追求變化，這真是太令人著迷了。（笑聲）眼下，世界正如火箭班呼嘯加速。不停的加速。還不止如此。與此同時，除了改變世界，我們還做了些非常奇怪的事情。我們的人口在四十年間增加了一倍，一半的新增人口生活在城市里，所有人都能彼此互動彼此交流，交流和互動之頻繁令人震驚。很多相關的數據都證明了這種信息流動的存在。信息的密度大的驚人。于是我們還做了第三件事。 你們一定都懂，只要你們在辦公室里工作過，樓梯間角落里那張小書桌，你們一定會覺得，好吧這就是我那張角落里的小桌子，錯了！你正坐在一家國際企業的總部中，因為你可以上網。之所以這么說是因為，我們衡量事物的標準變了。大小和規模的含義和從前是天壤之別了。再想想這個，每次你發X推X特（微博），超過三分之一的聽眾來自異國他鄉。

　　Global is the new scale. We know that. And so people say things like, "The world is now a turbulent place." Have you heard them saying things like that? And they use it as a metaphor. Have you come across this?世界范圍才是我們衡量的標準。我們都知道。于是乎有人就會說，“世界就像湍急的水流一樣。”你們八成都聽人說過類似的話吧？他們只是打個比方。你們遇到過沒？

　　And they think it's a metaphor, but this is not a metaphor. It's reality. As a young engineering student, I remember going to a demonstration where they basically, the demonstrator did something quite intriguing. What he did was, he got a transparent pipe —have you seen this demonstration before?—he attached it to a tap. So effectively what you had was, you had a situation where—I'll try and draw the tap and the pipe, actually I'll skip the tap. The taps are hard. Okay? So I'll write the word "tap." Is that okay? It's a tap. (Laughter) Okay, so he attaches it to a transparent pipe, and he turns the water on. And he says, do you notice anything? And the water is whooshing down this pipe. I mean, this is not exciting stuff. Are you with me? So the water goes up. He turns it back down. Great. And he says, "Anything you notice?" No. Then he sticks a needle into the pipe, and he connects this to a container, and he fills the container up with green ink. You with me? So guess what happens? A thin green line comes out as it flows down the pipe. It's not that interesting. And then he turns the water up a bit, so it starts coming back in. And nothing changes. So he's changing the flow of the water, but it's just a boring green line. He adds some more. He adds some more. And then something weird happens. There's this little flicker, and then as he turns it ever so slightly more, the whole of that green line disappears, and instead there are these little sort of inky dust devils close to the needle. They're called eddies. Not me. And they're violently dispersing the ink so that it actually gets diluted out, and the color's gone.他們覺得自己是在打比方，但其實不然。現實就是如此。我年輕的時候曾學過工程學，我記得有次去參觀一個作品展示會。基本上，作者使用了一些非常耐人尋味的手法。他是這么做的，首先準備一條透明的管子——你們以前見看過類似的沒有？——管子連著水龍頭。隨后你就會看到，你們馬上就會看到——我會盡量把水龍頭畫出來，當然包括管子，事實上我會略過水龍頭。很難畫出來。好吧？所以我寫個單詞“水龍頭。”這樣可以吧？就當是個是龍頭了。（笑聲）好的，水龍頭接上一個透明的管子，隨后打開水龍頭。隨后他說，你們發現什么有意思的東西沒？水流嗖嗖的穿過管子。我知道，這一點也不好玩。你們還在聽嗎？所以水繼續流。他關上龍頭。終于解脫了。然后他又問道，“注意到什么了嗎？”沒有。然后他用針頭刺進了管子里，并且用把管子和一個匣子連接在一起，在匣子里裝滿綠色的墨水。你還在聽嗎？猜猜發生了什么？一條細細的綠線出現了，隨著綠線流過管子。這并不好玩。于是作者把水龍頭開大了一點點，綠線還是在那。一點變化也沒有。 隨后他開始不停的搗鼓水龍頭，那條無聊的綠線還是沒有任何變化。水流越來越大。越來越急。不可思議的事情發生了。綠線開始有些時隱時現，然后隨著水流的持續增大，綠線徹底消失了，與此同時，在針頭附近出現了一些小小的被綠色墨水浸透的漩渦。他們被命名為艾迪。不是我哦。這些漩渦粗暴的把墨水打碎甩出去 因此綠色墨水漸漸被稀釋掉，色彩消失了。

　　What's happened in this world of pipe is somebody has flipped it. They've changed the rules from laminar to turbulent. All the rules are gone. In that environment, instantly, all the possibilities which turbulence brings are available, and it's not the same as laminar. And if we didn't have that green ink, you'd never notice.管子里發生的事情是因為有人顛覆了它的世界。把平靜的水流變成了洶涌的急流。所有的就規則都消失了。在充滿急流管子里，一瞬間，急流帶來了無限的可能性，與以前完全不同。如果不是這些偉大的墨水，你們永遠也不會發現注意到這些變化。

　　And I think this is our challenge, because somebody has actually increased — and it's probably you guys with all your tech and stuff — the speed, the scale and the density of interaction.這對我們來說是個挑戰，因為實際上有人——那個人很可能就是你們自己，你們的知識或者設備——把世界的節奏，衡量標準和交流的密度都改變了。

　　Now how do we cope and deal with that? Well, we could just call it turbulence, or we could try and learn. Yes, learn, but I know you guys grew up in the days when there were actually these things called correct answers, because of the answer you gave me to the horizontal line puzzle, and you believe it will last forever. So I'll put a little line up here which represents learning, and that's how we used to do it. We could see things, understand them, take the time to put them into practice. Out here is the world. Now, what's happened to our pace of learning as the world has accelerated? Well, if you work for a corporation, you'll discover it's quite difficult to work on stuff which your boss doesn't approve of, isn't in the strategy, and anyway, you've got to go through your monthly meetings. If you work in an institution, one day you will get them to make that decision. And if you work in a market where people believe in cycles, it's even funnier, because you have to wait all the way for the cycle to fail before you go, "There's something wrong." You with me? So it's likely that the line, in terms of learning, is pretty flat. You with me? This point over here, the point at which the lines cross over, the pace of change overtakes the pace of learning, and for me, that is what I was describing when I was telling you about midnight.現在我們該怎么應對這一切呢？好吧，我們可以打打醬油，或者努力去嘗試理解和學習它。不錯，學習，但是我知道在你們成長的年代里，有種東西叫做正確答案，因為它的存在，你們才會答錯我的水平線測試，你們覺得它永遠是對的。所以我畫一條線在這上邊代表著學習，這是我們以前對待學習的方法。通過學習我們記住并 理解我們看到的一切，隨后再花時間付諸行動。這里就是我們的世界。現在，我們是的學習進度是怎么的，伴隨著不停加速的世界？好吧，如果你為一家企業工作，你會發現你幾乎是寸步難行。如果沒有老板的批準，不是因為公司策略或者其他的任何原因，你連每月的例會都沒法通過。如果你在非商業機構里工作，總有一天你會說服你的領導批準你。如果你身在所謂的遵從市場規律的金融行業，那就更有趣了，因為你要一直等到市場最低迷的時候才能買入，“這有點落井下石啊。”所以這就像是那條線，代表學習的那條線，非常的平坦。你們還在聽嗎？這點在這， 兩條線的交叉點，變化的幅度打敗了學習的幅度，對于我來說，那就是我想要描述的，我早前給大家提到的變化發生的時刻。

　　So what does it do to us? Well, it completely transforms what we have to do, many mistakes we make. We solve last year's problems without thinking about the future. If you try and think about it, the things you're solving now, what problems are they going to bring in the future? If you haven't understood the world you're living in, it's almost impossible to be absolutely certain that what you're going to deliver fits.所以它到底對我們做了什么呢？這樣說吧，它徹底的改變了我們的行為方式，我們犯了很多錯。我們糾正去年的錯誤，但卻完全不考慮以后的問題。如果你們試著去考慮一下將來，眼下正在處理的問題，他們將來會出什么問題呢？如果你還是沒能理解眼下的世界，你幾乎不可能確定自己怎么做才合適。

　　I'll give you an example, a quick one. Creativity and ideas, I mentioned that earlier. All the CEOs around me, my clients, they want innovation, so they seek innovation. They say to people, "Take risks and be creative!" But unfortunately the words get transformed as they travel through the air. Entering their ears, what they hear is, "Do crazy things and then I'll fire you." Why? (Laughter) Because — Why? Because in the old world, okay, in the old world, over here, getting stuff wrong was unacceptable. If you got something wrong, you'd failed. How should you be treated? Well, harshly, because you could have asked somebody who had experience. So we learned the answer and we carried this in our heads for 20, 30 years, are you with me? The answer is, don't do things which are different. And then suddenly we tell them to and it doesn't work. You see, in reality, there are two ways you can fail in our new world. One, you're doing something that you should follow a procedure to, and it's a very difficult thing, you're sloppy, you get it wrong. How should you be treated? You should probably be fired. On the other hand, you're doing something new, no one's ever done before, you get it completely wrong. How should you be treated? Well, free pizzas! You should be treated better than the people who succeed. It's called smart failure. Why? Because you can't put it on your C.V.我想舉個例子，簡短的。創新和思想我早前跟大家提過。我的顧客們，那些首席執行官們，他們都想要新東西，所以他們最尋創新。他們都會跟員工說，“不要怕風險要敢于創新！”但不幸的是這些話到了員工的耳朵里確是截然不同的意思。員工聽到的是，“誰要是敢亂來我就炒了他。”為什么會這樣？（笑聲）因為——為什么？因為在舊的世界里，好吧，在曾經的世界里，這里，做錯事是不可接受的。如果你犯了錯，你失敗了。什么后果呢？好吧，后果很嚴重，因為你本可以求助有經驗的前輩。 所以我們學到了答案并且一直保存在腦袋里超過20,30年，你們還在聽嗎？ 答案就是，不要做和別人不一樣的事情。現在突然老板告訴他們放手去做，但是沒人會當真。 你們明白了吧，在新世界中有兩種方式會導致你失敗。一，你的工作就是照著章程一步一步來，并且這是一份很困難的工作，你只是在敷衍，你犯了錯。老板會怎么對你？你很肯能被炒魷魚。 另一種情況，你做了從來沒人做過的事情，你徹底的失敗了。你老板會怎么對你？ 好吧，免費的午餐！你比那些成功者更值得重視。這就是聰明的失敗者。為什么這么說？因為你不能把它放在簡歷上。

　　So what I want to leave you, then, is with the explanation of why I actually traveled 60,000 miles from my desk. When I realized the power of this new world, I quit my safe teaching job, and set up a virtual business school, the first in the world, in order to teach people how to make this happen, and I used some of my learnings about some of the rules which I'd learned on myself. If you're interested, worldaftermidnight.com, you'll find out more, but I've applied them to myself for over a decade, and I'm still here, and I still have my house, and the most important thing is, I hope I've done enough to inject a little green ink into your lives, so that when you go away and you're making your next absolutely sensible and rational decision, you'll take some time to think, "Hmm, I wonder whether this also makes sense in our new world after midnight." Thank you very much. (Applause) Thank you, thank you. (Applause)所以今天我想告訴大家的東西解釋了為什么我旅行了6,000英里。 當我意識到蘊藏在這個嶄新世界中的能量，我辭掉了穩定的教育工作，并且創建了一個虛擬商業學校，全球的第一家，為了幫助大家實現自己的商業目標而存在，并且我使用了一些自己琢磨出來的關于新世界的規則。如果你們感興趣，worldaftermidnight.com(網址），你們可以了解到更多。要知道我已經把這些理念應用在我自己身上十幾年了，我還是好好的站在這，我還是有房有車，并且最重要的是，我希望我的發言可以為大家的生活注入一點點綠色墨水， 所以當你離開這里并且要考慮你們的下一個特別重要并且關鍵的決定時，你們會花時間多想一想“恩，我很希望今天的演講能讓大家覺得不虛此行，在我們這個新世界里。”非常感謝大家（喝彩）謝謝，謝謝大家。（喝彩）

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