長江水質的評價和預測為題的論文摘要
摘要
長江是我國第1、世界第3大河流，長江水質的污染程度日趨嚴重，已引起了相關政府部門和專家們的高度重視。本文對長江近年來的相關數據進行分析，建立了對長江水質的`評價和趨勢預測模型。
針對問題1，本文采用“客觀性權重的變異系數法”和統計回歸兩種方法，給出了兩個長江水質評價模型。兩個模型各有特色，并利用模型對長江水質進行了評價。
針對問題2，本文以各個站點間的污染物排放量作為標準，通過分析和計算，得出如下結論：高錳酸鹽和氨氮污染物主要集中在湖北宜昌至湖南岳陽段。
針對問題3，本文采用指數平滑法，建立了時間序列預測模型。
針對問題4，本文采用指數平滑法預測了長江未來10年的污水排放量。經過分析計算得出污水排放量對長江水質的影響。通過優化模型得到未來10年長江的污水處理量最小值分別為：關鍵詞：客觀性權重的變異系數法，統計回歸,指數平滑法。
The estimation and trend forecast of the quality of Changjiang River’s water
Abstract
The Changjiang River is the first longest River in our country, and the third longest River in the world. But its water was polluted worse and worse. It has aroused the attention of related government department and experts. This report analyzed the recent years’ survey of the Changjiang River, and had made water quality estimate and trend forecast model.
As to first problem, the report has to methods: the coefficient variation of objectivity weighty and the regress of Stat. Each of the two models has its own characters. And it estimated the water quality by the two ways.
As to second problem, the report made let quantity of contamination between two points as the estimated standard. By analyzing and calculating I find the result. The result is the main pollution, CODMn and NH3-N, is between HubeiYichang and HunanYueyang.
As to third problem, it had the smooth exponential method, and made time list forecast model.
As to forth problem, it forecasted the let quantity of contamination in 10 years future by the smooth exponential method. After analysis and calculation, the minimum of treading saluted water quantity is:Keyword: the coefficient variation of objectivity weighty; the regress of Stat.; the smooth exponential method
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